Ag Weather Forum              05/12 09:06

   Heavy Early May Snow Brings Minimal Soil Moisture Benefit to Western Plains

   Very warm weather means surface moisture will evaporate before soaking into 
the soil profile.

Bryce Anderson
Ag Meteorologist Emeritus

   The first week in May brought a brief serving of winter weather to the state 
of Colorado. A snowstorm on May 5-6 produced up to 2 feet of snow in some parts 
of the state. Locations such as Steamboat, Breckenridge and Vail in the Rocky 
Mountains had around 10 inches of snow. In Denver, the storm became one of the 
biggest in history. The U.S. Drought Monitor summary for the High Plains 
region, which includes Colorado, noted "Light-to-moderate precipitation 
overspread much of the High Plains, with the heaviest accumulations (0.5-1.5 
inch) falling across central Colorado, including late-season snow across the 
higher elevations."

   So, on the surface, this precipitation would bring some improvement in 
drought conditions. There certainly was some easing of drought. The Drought 
Monitor assessment noted some drought easing occurred in central Colorado. But 
the benefit was limited. "Across the rest of the Plains, however, the moisture 
was not sufficient to engender substantive improvements," the Drought Monitor 
assessment said.

   Colorado State Climatologist Russ Schumacher told DTN soil moisture sensors 
indicated a sharp improvement following the May 5-6 storm. These quick 
improvements followed steady declines, or just consistently low, soil moisture 
until the early May precipitation. But that benefit may be short-lived. "The 
question is whether the moisture will percolate down to deeper layers, or 
whether it will just be a temporary blip considering we are looking at 
near-record high temperatures and no meaningful precipitation this week," 
Schumacher said in an email. "It was a much-needed storm for sure, but we'll 
need more of those kinds of storms before conditions can recover from the 
brutal winter and early spring."

   Schumacher also looks for little benefit to mountain snowpack moisture due 
to daylight length and a big dose of heat during this week. "I think we're 
going to lose any gains this week, again because of near-record warmth and 
because at this time in May the melt typically starts getting rapid anyway with 
the longer days and high sun angle," he said. "We can already see it in the 
snowpack charts where after the small increase from last week's storm, the melt 
out has commenced yet again."

   Snow water equivalent assessments from USDA's Natural Resources Conservation 
Service show as of 12:00 a.m. on May 11, 2026, snow water equivalent in 
Colorado was just 19% of the median value.

   Persistent and record-level warmth for months continues to dominate the 
Plains and western mountain regions of the U.S. Nebraska had its warmest and 
driest December-through-March stretch on record. The Colorado state climate 
report for April notes similar conditions, going back to fall 2025.

   "Water year 2026 continues to be the warmest on record by a large margin. 
Statewide average temperature has been 7.4 (degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the 
20th century average, 5.7 F above the 1991-2020 average, and 2.7 F warmer than 
any previous October-through-April period," the report noted. "It is the 7th 
driest start to a water year, 2.77-inches below average for precipitation 
statewide."

   The balance of this week supports the prospect of more snow melting and soil 
profile drying. The high temperature in Denver may reach 90 F this week. If 
that happens, it will tie the current Denver daily temperature record set in 
1915. Such warmth will make the moisture from early May just a brief interlude 
in a long dry period.

   Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com




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